Hunger as a Weapon: Iranian Government Braces for Revolution Fueled by 60% Inflation

New official figures showing inflation has reached 60% have transformed the current crisis from a political standoff into a desperate struggle for survival. For the 90 million people in Iran, the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln is secondary to the fact that they can no longer afford to eat. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that will likely capitalize on this “stomach-led” revolution, as hungry citizens have nothing left to lose.
The U.S. strategy is to use the carrier strike group to put the political leadership in the crosshairs, essentially “freezing” the security forces while the economic pressure does the rest. By targeting the leadership instead of the infrastructure, Washington hopes to avoid the mistakes of past wars and let the “internal pressure cooker” of 60% inflation do the heavy lifting of regime change. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that is perfectly timed to coincide with a national famine.
Tehran’s response has been to blame the “enemies” for the economic misery. Ali Larijani claims the U.S. is trying to “destroy social cohesion,” but for a shopkeeper in Tehran whose business is ruined by a 20-day internet blackout, the cohesion is already gone. The Iranian government is bracing for an attack while it still can’t figure out how to stabilize the rial, which has fallen to historic lows against the dollar.
The record fall of the stock market on Monday was the ultimate “no-confidence” vote from the Iranian people. It shows that even the wealthy elite are bracing for a collapse, moving their money out of the country as fast as the throttled internet allows. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike in a country where the currency is more dangerous to the regime than any American missile.
As the U.S. fleet prepares for its sustainment exercises, the 60% inflation rate remains the most explosive element in the region. The Iranian government is bracing for a “comprehensive” response, but you can’t fight a “stomach revolution” with a missile. The end of the clerical regime may be written in the price of bread, not the flight logs of the USS Abraham Lincoln.