Currency Woes Compound Tariff Pain for Italian Exporters

A perfect storm of trade tariffs and currency fluctuations is brewing for Italian exporters, who warn that the new US-EU agreement will be far more damaging than it appears on paper. The proposed 15% US tariff is only half the story; a projected 13.5% devaluation of the US dollar against the euro in 2025 is set to create a crippling double-whammy.
According to the Italian Employers’ Study Centre, this combination will cause a staggering €22.6 billion decline in the country’s exports to the United States. Dario Costantini, a leader of Italy’s small business confederation, explained the brutal math: “We are talking about 15%, but in reality the surcharge will be close to 30%,” making Italian goods significantly more expensive for American consumers.
This dual threat specifically penalizes Italy’s export-oriented economy, which relies heavily on the US market for its “Made in Italy” brands, ranging from fashion and luxury goods to industrial machinery. Unlike Germany, whose primary concern is the singular issue of auto tariffs, Italy’s diverse export base is broadly vulnerable to the new 15% rate.
The situation highlights how macroeconomic factors like currency exchange rates can dramatically amplify the impact of trade policy. For Italian businesses, the deal isn’t just an agreement about tariffs; it’s a major economic event that, combined with market forces, threatens to trigger a severe downturn in their most important export relationship.