BP Says ‘Electrostates’ May Emerge, But Fossil Fuels Remain the Default

The pursuit of energy security might spur the rise of low-carbon ‘electrostates,’ but BP’s latest annual outlook confirms that fossil fuels remain the global default, projecting sustained high oil and gas demand through 2050. The energy giant concludes that this slow transition means the world is set to miss the crucial 2050 net-zero target.
BP’s revised figures indicate a persistent reliance on hydrocarbons. Oil consumption in 2050 is now projected to hit 83 million barrels per day (b/d), an 8% increase from the previous 77 million b/d estimate. Natural gas demand is similarly forecast to remain elevated at 4,806 billion cubic meters annually in 2050. Furthermore, BP has delayed the expected date of peak oil demand by five years, now projecting 103 million b/d in 2030.
BP’s chief economist details how geopolitical tensions, including the war in Ukraine, Middle East conflicts, and trade tariffs, are intensifying national demands for energy security. While this focus could lead some nations to accelerate domestic, low-carbon electrification to become ‘electrostates,’ the report highlights the critical risk: an increased preference for domestically produced fossil fuels over imported alternatives, thus slowing global decarbonization.
The report delivers a critical warning regarding climate thresholds. BP’s modeling shows that the current energy trajectory risks exceeding the 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s. The company stresses that this extended period of delay increases the economic and social cost of remaining within the climate budget. To hit the net-zero goal, oil demand must fall aggressively to about 35 million b/d by 2050.
Despite the necessary and rapid growth of renewables—projected to meet over 80% of new electricity demand by 2035—oil is forecast to remain the largest single source of primary global energy supply, holding a 30% share in 2035. Renewables are set to rise from 10% to 15% of the primary energy supply by 2035 but are not expected to surpass oil’s market share until the late 2040s, underscoring the formidable inertia in the energy system.